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Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is making a notable visit to the US capital, Washington, which began Tuesday and is still ongoing, in his first foreign trip since taking office more than two months ago.
The visit is of major importance for Iraq, particularly given the political, economic and regional circumstances surrounding the country, amid highly sensitive US demands that include disarming armed factions and severing the country’s economic dependence on Iran.
A notable visit
Al-Zaidi is seeking to present a new and sustainable vision for the relationship with the United States by shifting from a framework of military cooperation to building a long-term strategic investment partnership that would help strengthen Iraq’s economic and development reality, according to what was confirmed by Prime Minister spokesperson Haider al-Aboudi.
Al-Zaidi received a notable welcome in Washington. According to the US news network CBS, air traffic was halted at Ronald Reagan National Airport for several hours on Tuesday, leading to the cancellation of more than 100 flights and a buildup of delays on other flights.
The network added that the measures came as a result of heightened security procedures aimed at protecting the Iraqi prime minister during his visit to Washington, coinciding with the wartime conditions involving Iran.
During al-Zaidi’s meeting with Trump at the White House, the latter described al-Zaidi as a “great and handsome leader,” said he loves Iraq, and said he supported al-Zaidi’s rise to power in Iraq. Trump said he had been interested in seeing al-Zaidi become prime minister, considering his rival, Nouri al-Maliki, to have adopted inappropriate positions toward Washington.
Trump also said he believed al-Zaidi would remain in office for a long time, adding that Iraq is undergoing a transformation in its relationship with the United States and that Washington does not need to remain militarily in Iraq.
Hot-button issues
Despite the warm US welcome for al-Zaidi, observers believe all of this is contingent on the Iraqi government’s ability to meet Washington’s requirements for moving ahead with the partnership the Iraqi prime minister is seeking, chief among them disarming the armed factions and placing weapons exclusively in the hands of the state something the government had pledged to achieve by the end of September, coinciding with the date set for the full withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.
In this regard, security researcher Hassan al-Obaidi says it is still too early to say definitively how Iraqi-US relations will develop, as that will depend on the outcomes of the visit and their implementation on the ground in Iraq, especially with regard to the weapons of the armed factions, some of which — such as Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba — have refused to surrender their arms under any circumstances.
Speaking to NoonPost, al-Obaidi said that although most Iraqi prime ministers since 2003 have visited Washington, this visit is the most sensitive in the country’s modern history, as it comes amid striking US insistence on closing the file of armed factions that have targeted US interests in Iraq and the region in more than 600 attacks, according to US assertions.
As a result, al-Zaidi may find himself, upon returning to Baghdad, in an extremely sensitive position that requires him to move quickly in dealing with US pressure to disarm the armed factions and dry up the sources of dollars flowing to Iran, potentially putting Iraq at risk of an internal confrontation with those factions something all previous prime ministers tried to avoid, he said.
According to a report published by The Associated Press, Iranian influence and the future of the armed factions occupied a large part of the White House talks with al-Zaidi, amid mounting US pressure on Baghdad to move forward with implementing a plan to confine weapons to the hands of the state.
The AP report quoted a Trump administration official as saying Washington will make its decisions on Iraq based on the “actual results” Baghdad achieves on the issue of disarming Iran-backed armed factions.
The report also quoted researcher Renad Mansour of the UK-based Chatham House as saying he expects Washington to exert “significant pressure” on al-Zaidi to push him toward more decisive steps on the factions issue, especially after his return to Baghdad.
Mansour added that al-Zaidi may tell Washington that his government will need US intelligence and military support to accomplish this task, which remains difficult to the utmost degree, warning that any direct confrontation with armed groups could prompt them to target the government itself — a scenario Baghdad fears being drawn into, according to the researcher.
Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called on the Iraqi government to affirm Baghdad’s security sovereignty by disarming Iran-backed militias, holding Iraqi militias responsible for hundreds of attacks targeting Americans.
The US defense secretary made the remarks in a press statement on the sidelines of official talks he held with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the Pentagon in Washington, stressing that Iran-backed militias were responsible for more than 600 attacks on US interests in Iraq and the region.
Returning to al-Obaidi’s comments on the AP report, he believes the escalating US pressure on Baghdad will inevitably push Prime Minister al-Zaidi to make bold security decisions regarding the armed factions, especially since the current US administration is firm and will not give al-Zaidi unlimited time.
Al-Obaidi concluded his remarks to NoonPost by saying: “I believe al-Zaidi will not take any action before October, based first on the deadline he set for the factions, and depending on the course of the US-Iran conflict, which has returned to military confrontation and may escalate in the coming weeks into a new all-out war that could be decisive with Iran. That may lead al-Zaidi to wait for its outcome before moving against the factions’ weapons.”
Development and energy files
The energy file occupies a large space in the Iraqi government’s talks with Washington, particularly as Baghdad seeks to reduce the impact of mounting US economic pressure, most recently the halt in the flow of cash dollars to Baghdad for nearly four months after the US-Israeli war on Iran.
The Iraqi delegation to Washington includes 27 ministers and senior officials, among them the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq. The government signed several agreements with Washington in a number of fields, most notably oil and energy. Speaking about the possibility of oil deals with Baghdad, the US president said: “We will make a lot of deals, we will create a lot of jobs in both countries, and we will extract large quantities of oil.”
German broadcaster DW revealed that Baghdad and Washington are expected to sign additional agreements, including a project to establish a development fund into which Iraq would deposit the equivalent value of 500,000 barrels of oil per day in exchange for support for the electricity sector and increased energy supplies.
Amid al-Zaidi government demands to increase Iraq’s export quota in OPEC, the Iraqi delegation’s visit to Washington included talks between Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem al-Abadi and Chevron President Jake Spiering on opportunities to expand cooperation in the oil and gas sectors, develop production, and benefit from global expertise and technology.
For his part, economic expert Mustafa Hantoush confirmed that al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington is pivotal, given the economic files it carries, especially those related to concluding agreements in oil and energy and increasing Iraq’s oil export share under the OPEC umbrella.
On the other hand, economic affairs researcher Mustafa Ahmed believes Iraq’s signing of 18 agreements with Washington in education, energy, armament, health, investment, industry and other fields depends on what the Iraqi government implements after its delegation returns to Baghdad, explaining that any strategic partnership between Baghdad and Washington depends on the internal security situation.
Speaking to NoonPost, Ahmed said Iraq is prepared for major investment companies to enter the country, but the continuation of the war between Washington and Tehran may hinder implementation of these agreements in the foreseeable future, given the previous attacks on US interests during the war between February and June.
That means, according to the researcher, implementation of these agreements will be postponed until after Iraq fulfills its security commitments to Washington, which include confining weapons to the hands of the state, restructuring the Iraqi economy, and the anti-corruption campaign launched by al-Zaidi’s government weeks ago, he said.