Since its 1988 decision to sever legal and administrative ties with the West Bank, Jordan has treated its western front as its foremost strategic concern. Geography, the political entanglements of the Palestinian cause, and fears of displacement plans and demographic change have made developments there a matter of national security for Amman.
In recent months, however, southern Syria has added a northern dimension to Jordan’s security calculations. The kingdom believes that any disruption to security and stability there could have direct security or demographic consequences, given the sensitivity of the shared border and the wider regional entanglements surrounding it.
Jordan now faces a more complex regional environment, with challenges arising from the West Bank to its west and southern Syria to its north. The two fronts differ, but both directly affect Amman’s security calculations. Jordan rejects regional arrangements imposed without political consensus, or changes to the region’s map that would place further pressure on the kingdom.
Jordanian concern is growing alongside Israel’s expanding role on both fronts. In the West Bank, fears are mounting over the political and demographic consequences of potential changes. In southern Syria, rapid shifts in security and their possible effects on Jordan’s borders have made the situation increasingly sensitive. Together, these developments raise questions about the growing range of threats facing the kingdom and how they affect its national security calculations.
The West Bank: an enduring demographic and political threat
The West Bank has occupied a central place in Jordan’s calculations for decades, from the geopolitical changes following the 1967 war to the kingdom’s 1988 decision to sever legal and administrative ties with it. Developments in the Palestinian arena since the events of 7 October 2023, and the successive waves of escalation that followed, have pushed the West Bank to the top of Jordan’s political and security priorities as one of the issues most directly tied to its national security.
For Jordan, the West Bank is a direct geographical and political extension of the kingdom. Far-reaching demographic or political changes there could affect Jordan’s stability and internal make-up. Amman therefore rejects arrangements that could alter conditions in the West Bank and lead to demographic changes it sees as affecting its national interests and internal balance.
The kingdom sees developments in the West Bank as having potential consequences at home. Foremost among its concerns is forced displacement towards Jordan, one of the most sensitive scenarios for its decision-makers. Amman believes that large-scale demographic change in the West Bank would threaten the prospect of an independent Palestinian state and could also leave Jordan bearing the consequences of a regional crisis it did not create, forcing it to absorb the fallout of the conflict.
This concern is closely tied to Jordan’s rejection of the “alternative homeland”: the idea of substituting Jordan for a Palestinian state or shifting the burden of the Palestinian cause beyond its borders. Jordan’s leadership sees that prospect as a threat to the essence of the Palestinian cause and as a change to the terms of the regional conflict. For Amman, preserving Palestinian political identity and a Palestinian entity capable of managing its own affairs is therefore a matter of Jordanian national security as well as a demand linked to the Palestinian cause.
Southern Syria: a new security threat on the northern border
In recent months, southern Syria has emerged as another source of concern for Jordan. Its northern border has faced threats in recent years from armed groups, smuggling networks and overlapping regional involvement. But recent developments, particularly Israeli overreach in the area and continuing violations there, have brought southern Syria to the forefront of Jordan’s security calculations as one of Amman’s most sensitive and complex security issues.
Amman views the two fronts differently. Its concerns about the West Bank are primarily political and demographic, tied to the Palestinian cause, with security considerations following from them. It views southern Syria more directly through the lens of security, as a sensitive border area linked to the kingdom’s stability and internal security.
Jordan’s principal concern on the northern front is that existing security arrangements in southern Syria could change and the buffer zone become an area of persistent tension. The presence of Israeli forces in new areas or near the Jordanian border could make the security situation more complex and perhaps turn southern Syria into a long-term, open conflict zone.
Jordan has consequently emphasised Syria’s territorial unity and sovereignty. In Amman’s view, a stable Syrian state with functioning institutions and control over its territory is essential to regional and border security.
The western front: a primarily political response
Because the two fronts pose different challenges, hold different places among Jordan’s national priorities and could have consequences of differing severity for its security, Amman has responded to each with different tools.
In the West Bank, Jordan has taken a primarily political and diplomatic approach, reflecting the Palestinian issue’s political and demographic dimensions and the direct consequences that fundamental changes could have for the kingdom. It has stepped up efforts to oppose measures that might alter conditions there, particularly Israeli annexation steps and scenarios involving displacement. It has also supported a path towards establishing a Palestinian state and sought to preserve Jerusalem’s legal and historical status.
Jordan has worked through international diplomacy to rally opposition to measures that would change the West Bank’s demographic or legal reality. It has stressed the need to protect Palestinian rights and prevent new facts from being imposed on the ground. Drawing on its regional and international relationships, Amman has also maintained that the Palestinian issue can be resolved only through a political process leading to a Palestinian state in accordance with international reference points.
Security remains part of these calculations: the West Bank is directly connected to the security of Jordan’s western border. The kingdom also continues to emphasise its historic role concerning Jerusalem and its holy sites, which it regards as one of the most important pillars of its political involvement in the Palestinian cause. Amman believes that changes to the status quo, or to the political and legal arrangements in Jerusalem and the West Bank, could have repercussions beyond the Palestinian arena and across the region.
The northern front: a direct security approach
In southern Syria, Jordan’s priority has been more directly focused on security, with political and diplomatic efforts playing a lesser role. The kingdom has concentrated on protecting its borders and preventing disorder or armed tensions from spilling into its territory. It has also supported stable security arrangements to keep southern Syria from becoming an open conflict zone.
Politically, Jordan has emphasised Syrian sovereignty and territorial unity. It regards a stable Syrian state capable of controlling its borders as essential to regional and border security. Amman has therefore used security and diplomatic channels to address developments in southern Syria and try to contain their repercussions.
Despite the different threats on its two fronts, Jordan’s responses share several principles. Amman rejects the imposition of new facts by force, whether through changes in the West Bank or shifts in the balance of power in southern Syria. It also regards border stability as a strategic priority while facing turmoil in three surrounding regional arenas: Iraq, Syria and Palestine.
Above all, Jordan seeks to prevent the region’s crises and their security and political repercussions from spilling into its domestic arena, while preserving the state’s ability to manage a regional environment in which challenges are increasing and security and political issues overlap in unprecedented ways. Can Amman manage this delicate balance with its limited tools and complex calculations?