هذا التقرير متاح أيضًا بـ العربية

In a step confirming the return of Western investment to Syria’s energy sector after years of war and sanctions, the Syrian Oil Company signed a contract with the US company ConocoPhillips and Novatara Energy in an agreement aimed at developing a number of existing onshore gas fields and exploring new ones, reflecting the gradual return of major American companies to the Syrian market.

This development comes as part of a series of moves and previous agreements in the energy sector during 2025 and 2026, including memorandums of understanding and contracts with international companies, alongside meetings and high-level delegations in Damascus. This reflected the gradual return of the file to the forefront of engagement between the Syrian government and global energy companies, foremost among them American firms.

Even so, this return still faces challenges tied to the consequences of war and past sanctions, deteriorating infrastructure and the absence of a stable economic framework, raising questions about the agreement’s practical and time-bound feasibility and its impact on Syria’s energy reality.

In this context, this report discusses the motives behind the return of major American companies such as ConocoPhillips to the Syrian market, the impact of this step on Syrians’ lives, and whether the energy file could serve as an entry point for reshaping Syria’s presence in regional and international politics.

Three main areas of operation

On June 16, signed the Syrian Oil Company a “strategic” contract with ConocoPhillips and Novatara Energy to develop gas fields in Syria, under the sponsorship of the Ministry of Energy, following a course of technical and legal discussions that formed the project’s executive framework.

Energy Minister Mohammad al-Bashir said the agreement marks an important milestone reflecting the return of international confidence in Syria’s energy sector and supporting increased production and system stability.

The names of the fields covered by the agreement have not yet been officially announced, but a map published on Novatara’s website shows three main development areas within its scope of work in Syria: the Tabyyah development area near Deir Ezzor, the Bilaas area north of Palmyra, in addition to a development block in northern Damascus.

Available data indicate that the Bilaas area is located in the Syrian desert north of the city of Palmyra and is classified as a major onshore gas field within exploration and development zones. The Tabyyah area, meanwhile, refers to a strategic gas field in the Deir Ezzor countryside, locally known for its connection to major gas facilities in eastern Syria and referred to in some contexts as the Conoco gas facilities or Conoco gas plant.

By contrast, the northern Damascus block falls within exploration areas in the Damascus countryside, where the Syrian Petroleum Company had previously carried out drilling work in the Tuwani area on Jan. 28, 2025, within one of the blocks belonging to this square, as one of the previously discovered wells, with expected production reaching about 200,000 cubic meters of gas per day.

The agreement focuses on developing a number of existing gas fields and rehabilitating their operating infrastructure with the aim of increasing production and improving technical efficiency. It also includes cooperation in introducing modern expertise and technologies, assessing the condition of the fields, and identifying priorities for technical intervention, helping to raise production gradually, according to statements by the Syrian Oil Company’s media directorate to NoonPost.

The directorate said the main goal of this agreement is to boost local gas production, support the energy supplies needed for the electricity sector and other vital sectors, and gradually reduce reliance on gas imports. The agreement also represents an important step in attracting international expertise and investment to help rehabilitate Syria’s energy sector.

It added that the project will be implemented in technical and operational phases, because developing and rehabilitating the fields requires precise assessment, equipment, and processing and operating work. Under the initial plan, the primary processing unit is expected to arrive in October, with new quantities of gas to begin being added to production in December. After that, increases are planned to continue gradually every quarter during the coming year.

This will also be reflected gradually in electricity supply, because increasing locally produced gas supports the power system, but it is also tied to the readiness of infrastructure, generation plants, and transmission and distribution networks.

The biggest challenge: the postwar reality

The main challenges, according to the media directorate, are tied to the condition of the fields and infrastructure after years of declining investment and maintenance, as there is a need for precise technical assessment, rehabilitation of facilities, development of processing units, securing equipment, and improving operational efficiency and safety.

Increasing production also does not depend on a single decision or one step, but on an interconnected chain of technical work: from assessing the fields, to preparing surface infrastructure, to processing, and then linking to the transport and utilization system.

The directorate pointed out that having partners with international experience, alongside the expertise of Syrian personnel, helps accelerate the handling of these challenges according to a clear implementation plan and measurable phases.

It explained that the Syrian Petroleum Company is the national party responsible for managing this process in coordination with the Ministry of Energy and international partners, and that its role is not limited to administrative follow-up, but also includes technical and operational supervision, setting priorities, monitoring implementation of the project’s phases, and ensuring that the work is aligned with the national interest and the needs of the energy sector.

The company will also play a key role in empowering Syrian personnel within the project through operation, training and knowledge transfer, because the goal is not only to increase production, but to build a sustainable national capacity to manage and develop the gas sector more efficiently in the coming years.

The expected impact of the agreement on Syrians’ lives will be gradual rather than immediate, according to the directorate. Increased local gas production means greater support for the electricity system and a gradual reduction in the need for imports, easing the economic burdens associated with securing energy from abroad.

At the economic level, the development of gas fields affects multiple sectors because energy is involved in operating factories, services and the broader productive infrastructure. The more the energy sector’s ability to meet local needs improves, the greater the economy’s ability to recover and grow.

As for job opportunities, the directorate said the agreement gives clear priority to Syrian personnel, whether through direct employment or through training and qualification programs, noting a tendency to establish training programs and centers in the work areas, especially in the central region and Deir Ezzor, with the aim of transferring expertise and technology to young people and national cadres.

عمالقة الطاقة في سوريا بعد التحرير.. خريطة الدول والشركات المستثمرة بعد رفع العقوبات. pic.twitter.com/hBjVfh2BL1

— نون سوريا (@NoonPostSY) June 17, 2026

The importance of the timing of the agreement

Beyond the new quantities it could add to local gas production, the importance of the agreement is tied to the political and economic timing in which it was concluded, amid rapid shifts in Syria’s relationship with international markets and companies.

The signing comes in the context of broad opening-up following US and European sanctions relief. Washington announced an exemption from the Caesar Act in May 2025, then US President Donald Trump signed an executive order ending the sanctions program on Syria, while Congress later moved toward repealing the law entirely, a step that still needs to complete its legislative path.

Consultant and energy sector expert Dr. Shadi Kalash believes the importance of this signing is not measured by the size of the initial gas quantities, which are relatively modest, but by its significance as a decisive political-economic signal.

ConocoPhillips is not a service company or a subcontractor, but one of the world’s largest independent exploration and production companies, with a market value exceeding $130 billion. Its return is considered the first major entry by a US oil and gas company into Syria in two decades, and the first contract of its kind with the new administration in Damascus.

A “foundational-symbolic” value

Kalash told NoonPost that, from an investment perspective, the timing is highly significant for three intertwined reasons:

First, it comes directly after the lifting of the punitive cover. As long as the Caesar Act remained in force, any dealing with Syria’s vital sectors was fraught with the risk of secondary sanctions that paralyze financing, insurance and shipping. Removing this wall is the enabling condition without which a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange cannot risk its capital and reputation.

The second reason is the logic of the “first mover,” as major companies race to enter before market rules settle and the best assets are allocated. Those who enter early secure a negotiating position in larger subsequent contracts.

The third reason is the direct link to the electricity crisis. Gas here is not an export commodity, but fuel for operating power plants, making the government’s performance on this file a direct measure of its legitimacy in the eyes of a citizen who judges the state by daily hours of electricity.

Kalash believes the real value of the signing is more foundational-symbolic than quantitative. This is not a diminution, in his words, but an accurate description of the nature of the current phase. What is happening in Syria today is a repricing of country risk: every major contract signed lowers the “risk premium” that investors and financiers add on top of the required return, and shifts the economic feasibility curve for projects that were not financeable just months ago.

When a company the size of ConocoPhillips puts its signature down, it is not merely developing a field, but validating the hypothesis that Syrian risks have become “manageable and insurable” the hypothesis on which everything that follows will rest.

Kalash added that there is an important timing factor in this agreement that often goes unnoticed politically, what could be called the “window of available assets.” Syria’s onshore gas fields are not equal in attractiveness: some are close to existing infrastructure such as transport lines and processing plants, while others are damaged, remote or complicated in terms of control and operation. Therefore, companies do not deal with “Syria” as a whole, but pick the best baskets of low-cost, quick-return assets.

In this context, the timing of June 2026 gives Conoco a leading position to choose the best opportunities currently available, while those entering later may find themselves facing the hardest conditions and toughest terms.

In addition, the agreement can be read within a third dimension related to the “engineering of sequencing.” The onshore agreement is not isolated, but rather one link in a calculated chain, beginning with a memorandum of understanding in October 2025, then the company’s entry in May 2026 into the offshore track through “Block 3” off Latakia with TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy, followed by the onshore contract in June.

Kalash said this sequence reveals a “foothold” strategy in which the company begins with a low-risk, quickly executable onshore asset to serve as proof of concept and a platform of relationships and data, on which higher-value, longer-term offshore bets are later built. He noted that “whoever reads the agreement as a standalone deal misjudges its weight; in reality, it is a gateway into an entire system.”

At the same time, however, Kalash warns against what he described as the trap of “overinterpreting politically.” The quantities targeted in the first year are roughly equivalent to half the gap between current production and the grid’s needs. They are important, but not a radical solution.

The greatest short-term danger is not technical but perceptual, in his words: that the celebratory image of the signing will be read publicly as a promise of electricity’s return within months, while the engineering reality says that rehabilitating damaged fields, idle wells and exhausted networks is a process measured in years, not months. Therefore, the first real test of this agreement remains managing this gap between “symbolism” and “engineering time.”

بعد سنوات من الركود والعقوبات، يعود الغاز السوري إلى الواجهة من خلال اتفاق جديد مع شركة كونوكو فيليبس الأمريكية. فهل يمكن لعقد واحد أن يغير مسار أزمة الكهرباء في سوريا؟ pic.twitter.com/kijYc0YZD7

— نون سوريا (@NoonPostSY) June 16, 2026

Why is ConocoPhillips betting on Syria now?

The entry of US company ConocoPhillips into the Syrian market carries a meaning that goes beyond the project itself to what energy expert Shadi Kalash calls the “validation effect.” At the direct level, the impact is limited, but at the level of the investment ecosystem, the effect is far broader.

That is because a company of this size comes loaded with a strict legal and financial due diligence system and governance linked to its listing on US markets. When it puts its signature on a Syrian contract, it sends a message to the rest of the players that legal and punitive risks have become manageable, making it easier later for banks, insurance companies and reinsurers to enter.

Economically, this falls within a broader logic: the energy sector is the primary engine of reconstruction. There is no industry, agriculture or stable health services without electricity, and no sufficient electricity without gas. Therefore, every dollar invested in raising gas production has a multiplier effect that runs through the entire economy.

The American entry specifically also carries an additional political dimension, as it places US companies inside the “architecture” of Syria’s energy sector after the sanctions phase, alongside Chevron’s moves in Syrian waters and the appearance of Baker Hughes and Hunt Energy in the planning track and the northeastern file.

أجرى وزير الطاقة السوري محمد البشير زيارة إلى العاصمة الأميركية واشنطن، بحث خلالها مع مسؤولين أميركيين فرص التعاون في قطاع الطاقة وتوسيع مشاركة الشركات الأجنبية في مشاريع النفط والغاز والبنية التحتية. فماذا قد تعني هذه الزيارة لسوريا؟ وكيف يمكن أن تنعكس على حياة المواطنين؟ pic.twitter.com/jKYFoUObBV

— نون سوريا (@NoonPostSY) June 11, 2026

Kalash believes the deeper economic value lies not in the gas produced, but in the value chain it sets in motion. Syrian gas is not intended for export but for electricity generation, and here lies a crucial point many overlook: the biggest obstacle is not at the source alone.

Even if gas production were doubled tomorrow, the transmission and distribution network would still lose about one-third of what enters it (losses reached about 32 percent in 2023, roughly double the prewar level). Therefore, the real economic return of the Conoco agreement is contingent on parallel investment in generation plants which Qatar is leading through projects exceeding 5,000 megawatts in capacity and in rehabilitating transmission and distribution networks and meters. The agreement is a necessary link, but not sufficient on its own.

There is also a macroeconomic risk that proactive policies should contain early on: what is known as the “Dutch disease” and the “resource curse.”

The inflow of hard currency from energy contracts could artificially raise the Syrian pound’s exchange rate and weaken the competitiveness of industry and agriculture. Likewise, the concentration of rentier revenues in the hands of the state could weaken incentives toward a diversified productive economy. Postwar Syria, according to Kalash, has an opportunity to avoid this trap if it designs a transparent fiscal framework a sovereign fund or disciplined spending rule from the outset, rather than allowing revenues to leak into current consumption or patronage networks.

The investment impact of the agreement, from the angle of “local content,” should be measured not only by the dollars coming in, but by how much of them filters into the local economy: employing Syrian engineers and technicians, transferring knowledge, activating local supply chains for services and maintenance, and building capacities in universities and technical institutes.

Kalash noted that Novatara explicitly announced that it will provide training and access to advanced software and technologies. If this is закрепed in binding contractual clauses rather than general promises, it could be more valuable in the long term than the production share itself, because it builds human capital that remains after any company leaves.

What is the nature of the relationship between ConocoPhillips and Novatara?

The significance of ConocoPhillips’ entry is not limited to investment and political implications alone; it also extends to the nature of its partnership with Novatara, the distribution of their roles, and how they will manage the project on the ground.

Novatara Energy describes itself on its official website as operating in Syria’s energy sector, with a focus on developing and rehabilitating oil and gas resources in order to support local gas supplies, contribute to improving the energy system and enhance economic recovery.

It explains that it is active across the upstream value chain, including exploration, development and production, with the goal of restarting existing fields, developing previous discoveries and exploring new resources, according to operational standards based on efficiency and safety. It also points to its focus on developing local personnel and building capacity within Syria’s energy sector.

The company is owned by Syrian-British businessman Ayman Asfari, who serves as its chairman and is the former CEO of oilfield services giant Petrofac, while its implementation is led by Alex MacDonald, who has more than 35 years of experience in the upstream sector.

As for the nature of the partnership between ConocoPhillips and Novatara, consultant Shadi Kalash explained that the entry of major companies through an operating partner is a classic model in the oil and gas industry, with clear engineering and commercial justifications: distributing security, operational and reputational risks; possessing the local expertise needed to rehabilitate fields that are actually damaged, not merely abandoned; raising efficiency by allowing each party to specialize in its comparative advantage; and securing relational and political cover through a locally rooted partner with a history in the sector and ties to the new administration.

According to Kalash, ConocoPhillips plays a role centered on setting the “overall framework for developing and exploring a portfolio of gas assets” — in other words, it brings capital, technical weight and institutional credibility before financiers and markets. By contrast, Novatara, according to its own description, focuses on the executive and operational side on the ground, including training, providing access to advanced software and technologies, and building operations on the ground — a role closer to field execution, supply chain management and local relations.

Kalash sees this as an “intelligent and entirely logical” division of labor, and one of the models best suited to a high-risk environment. Through Novatara, Conoco buys access, local credibility and local knowledge; in return, through Conoco, Novatara buys financial and technical weight, international credibility and bankability.

This asymmetrical complementarity, according to Kalash, is what makes the whole greater than the sum of its parts: Conoco alone does not possess the keys to the Syrian ground, and Novatara alone does not have a balance sheet that reassures banks.

Expected economic effects

These political and investment developments are directly reflected in the reality of Syria’s energy sector, particularly in terms of local production and gas demand.

In this context, economic expert Abdel Hakim al-Masri told NoonPost that current daily production stands at about 4.5 million cubic meters per day, and is expected to rise to 13 million cubic meters per day as production gradually increases over the coming years.

Al-Masri explained that, according to estimates, daily demand is about 18 million cubic meters. There will therefore still be a deficit, but the situation will improve compared with the current period, as the gap will decline from about 8.5 million cubic meters to roughly 5 million cubic meters per day. He noted that before the revolution, about 30 million cubic meters of gas were produced daily.

The state’s current annual production is about 3 billion cubic meters of gas, and under this agreement it is expected to rise to between 5.5 billion and 6 billion cubic meters annually. This increase would cover about 80 percent of Syria’s daily needs, not just the needs of the electricity sector.

Al-Masri said increased production will reduce reliance on imports, as gas is currently being imported from Azerbaijan and Qatar to operate electricity generation plants. Despite the improvement in the electricity situation at the beginning of the liberation, rationing is still in place.

Accordingly, increased local production will help reduce imports, improve the trade balance, ease pressure on foreign currency reserves and demand for foreign currencies, and will also positively affect GDP as a result of higher gas production volumes in Syria in general.

Al-Masri added that the state is currently unable to bring in the technology needed — machinery and drilling rigs — for exploration, and therefore oil fields will remain idle. But through the agreement, it will be able to obtain the technology needed to explore for gas, invest in it and help improve the situation more broadly.

The agreement is also expected to increase job opportunities to some extent and reduce the unemployment that is widespread among Syrians in general, because foreign companies want to benefit from labor — especially ordinary and medium-skilled workers, who will be locals — while possibly bringing in senior technicians and engineers from abroad. This is very important, especially in exploration areas.

Al-Masri believes this type of agreement should quickly affect Syrians’ lives, but the presence of destroyed infrastructure may delay results. Before the liberation, the operating rate of the fields did not exceed about 30 percent of total fields, or the fields under investment, which requires rehabilitation and maintenance work on wells, pipelines, machinery and equipment — processes that take time.

Naturally, the duration of rehabilitation work depends on the timetable specified in the contract, but once completed, the electricity situation is expected to improve markedly through an increase in the number of hours of power supply, and this may also be reflected in lower electricity prices compared with the current situation.

Part of the gas production will also be directed to other industrial sectors, especially heavy industries such as cement, fertilizers and bakeries, which rely heavily on electric power. The use of gas in these sectors could help reduce production costs, which may positively affect the prices borne by consumers and citizens.

Al-Masri explained that this agreement can be viewed as the entry of an American company into the Syrian market after sanctions relief, which could be a positive indicator helping attract additional investment and opening the door for other companies to enter and operate the rest of the facilities and plants.

Especially since the operating rate of the fields after the company’s entry reached about 65 percent, while about 35 percent of the fields remain uninvested or out of operation. Other companies could contribute to bringing them online, whether in the gas or oil sector, especially those not covered by the current agreements or left outside investment.

This is a positive indicator toward increasing energy production in general, whether gas or oil, which will be reflected in lower costs given that production is local, with the possibility of later moving toward export.

Likewise, lower oil prices globally or locally are directly reflected across various economic sectors, as energy affects all stages of production, from transport to manufacturing. For example, when oil prices rose in previous periods to about $110 a barrel, land and sea transport costs, shipping prices and production costs in general rose with them, given that energy is a basic element across different sectors.

Today, however, with the price of a barrel falling back to around $75 to $77, it has returned to levels close to what it was before the period of regional tensions, and this is expected to be gradually reflected in lower prices. But this decline does not happen as quickly as price increases do; it needs time to be reflected in the market.

Overall, this is likely to lead to a gradual improvement in living conditions and a relative decline in costs, with a positive impact on citizens.

The energy file as a foreign policy tool

In the wake of the contract signing, met Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa with ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance, Novatara Energy CEO Alex MacDonald, and Syrian-British businessman Ayman Asfari, in the presence of Foreign and Expatriates Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, Energy Minister Mohammad al-Bashir, and Syrian Petroleum Company CEO Youssef Qablawi — an indication that the energy file has become part of Syria’s new economic diplomacy.

This agreement also comes within a series of understandings with other international companies. American and other Western firms had previously moved along multiple tracks within Syria’s energy sector. Chevron signed a memorandum of understanding in February 2026 to assess exploration in Syrian waters, followed by Damascus’ announcement in May of the designation of the first deepwater offshore block and preparations for technical work.

Along the same track, ConocoPhillips joined TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy in reviewing an offshore block near Latakia. A third American track also emerged, led by service and consulting companies such as Baker Hughes, Hunt Energy and Argent LNG, aimed at preparing a master plan for Syria’s energy sector, before the discussion later expanded to include potential alliances with Saudi companies to explore and develop projects in the northeast, though this has not yet reached final contracts or actual implementation.

Political researcher Wael Alwan believes that agreements related to the energy sector come within the framework of Syrian foreign policy’s orientation toward opening up to investment opportunities in this vital sector, making it a key source of the national resources needed for recovery and reconstruction.

Alwan told NoonPost that Syrian gas is a wealth that has not yet been sufficiently invested in, and requires exploration, prospecting and infrastructure development capable of harnessing it in a way that serves the national economy.

He added that these partnerships, from a broader perspective, represent the hallmark of Syria’s new political phase, which is moving from isolation, restriction and sanctions toward gradual engagement in the global economy and international cooperation, especially in energy markets and regional and international supply chains.

This path points to the emergence of what is known as “energy diplomacy,” according to the researcher, where the energy file becomes a tool for reshaping relations in the post-conflict phase and a means of opening channels of regional and international cooperation that may extend beyond the energy sector into broader fields. This has been reflected in understandings with Arab and Western countries, including Algeria and Gulf states, in addition to international companies.

The energy sector is viewed as a key indicator of Syria’s level of integration into the international system, given the sensitivity of this sector and the overlap between the interests of the companies operating in it and regional and international policies, especially when American and Western companies are involved, reflecting a shift in the nature of the relationship with the Syrian file in the context of sanctions and economic opening.

He pointed out that these developments carry clear political messages from Damascus, especially in the context of its dealings with Western, specifically American, companies, given the sensitivity of the US sanctions file, which is one of the most influential issues affecting the Syrian economy.

It is notable that these companies, whether private or mixed in character, operate within frameworks that adhere to US policies and orientations, reflecting a gradual international opening toward dealing with Syria and support for the path of reconstruction and its reintegration into the international system.

However, “energy diplomacy,” according to Alwan, does not operate in isolation from other tracks, but is part of a broader process of repositioning Syria regionally and internationally. Therefore, it is very important to conclude bilateral political agreements and international treaties.

It is also necessary to complete the formation of the People’s Assembly, pass investment laws and legislation that define the contours of Syria’s new economic identity, and strengthen internal and external security stability, thereby preparing a broader environment for the success of this economic and political opening.